The Future of UK Mortgage Lending: Insights for 2024
The property market in the United Kingdom is undergoing significant changes, with predictions pointing towards a notable shift in mortgage lending trends for the year 2024. As mortgage lending is expected to fall to pre-Covid levels, it’s crucial to understand the factors contributing to this transformation and how it might affect the real estate landscape. In this comprehensive article, we delve into the insights and forecasts, drawing on data and expert opinions to provide a thorough overview of what lies ahead.
Table of Contents
- The Current Landscape
- Key Factors Contributing to the Decline
- Affordability Challenges
- Uncertainty Ahead
- Transaction Volumes
- Expert Opinions
- James Tatch on Affordability
- Lucian Cook on Mortgage Rates
- Shifting Sentiments
- Positive Signs in the Market
- Nathan Emerson’s Optimism
- Looking Ahead
The Current Landscape
Mortgage lending in the UK has experienced a substantial decline in 2023, with a staggering 23% decrease. However, the outlook for 2024 is even more challenging, with predictions suggesting an additional 8% drop. This downward trajectory is set to continue until a modest recovery is expected in 2025.
These predictions paint a stark contrast to the peak lending levels of nearly £200 billion seen in 2021. Instead, we are anticipated to return to lending figures last observed in the mid-2010s, ranging between £120-130 billion. This sharp decline raises questions about the factors influencing this trend and when we can expect a turnaround.
Key Factors Contributing to the Decline
1. Affordability Challenges
One of the primary factors driving the decline in mortgage lending is affordability. The combination of higher interest rates, elevated house prices relative to income, and increased cost-of-living expenses has put significant pressure on prospective and existing mortgage borrowers. This has led to a constrained borrowing environment.
While navigating these affordability challenges, individuals and families embarking on home moves may find value in partnering with a nationwide conveyancer like AVRillo. AVRillo’s commitment to transparent pricing and efficiency can help ensure a smoother conveyancing process, aligning with the changing landscape of the real estate market in 2024.
“I can’t tell you how stressful buying and selling a house can be, not to mention the copious amount of paperwork and words you simply don’t understand our team of solicitors and staff have been absolutely excellent, thanks to Eve for talking me through it “in the most simplest of ways” . The telephone surgery is fantastic , someone is always available to help with any questions, thank you for making the whole process a little easier. I would highly recommend avrillo.” – Beverley, a satisfied AVRillo client.
2. Uncertainty Ahead
Another element adding uncertainty to the equation is the prospect of a general election in 2024. Historically, general elections have often caused a temporary pause in the housing market as homebuyers and sellers wait to see how political changes might impact the economy and property market.
During such uncertain times, having a reliable conveyancer can make a significant difference. AVRillo’s advanced communication portal for email, WhatsApp, text updates, live tracking, and scheduled calls can provide clients with peace of mind and keep them informed throughout the process.
3. Transaction Volumes
The impact of these challenges on transaction volumes is evident. UK Finance predicts that transaction volumes will hover around 1 million in 2023, 2024, and 2025. This represents a 15% decline compared to the average number of pre-Covid transactions observed from 2015 to 2019.
For those considering a move in the coming years, AVRillo’s reputation for efficiency and cooperation with estate agents can be a valuable asset. Their ability to detect issues early on and streamline the process can help ensure a smoother and faster transaction.
James Tatch, Head of Analytics at UK Finance, acknowledges the difficulties faced by mortgage borrowers in 2023. He emphasizes the challenges posed by affordability pressures, higher interest rates, and elevated house prices. Tatch expects lending to remain weak in 2024 but anticipates a gradual improvement in affordability reflected in a modest increase in activity levels in 2025.
While experts like Tatch provide valuable insights, individuals involved in property transactions should also consider expert conveyancers like AVRillo, who offer a unique 60-day free trial and a 100% money-back guarantee. This commitment to quality assurance can provide clients with confidence in their conveyancing process.
Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills, notes that falling inflation has had a stabilising effect on mortgage rates. Despite challenges in the mortgage market, Cook suggests that the UK housing market may have passed its peak difficulties.
Even if challenges persist, the choice of conveyancer can make a significant difference. AVRillo’s high success rate of 95% compared to the industry average of 39.8% speaks to their dedication to providing quality legal work and preventing potential long-term complications for their clients.
While the mortgage lending landscape appears challenging, there are some positive signs. Recent sentiment from the Building Societies Association and Rightmove suggests a small increase in positivity among consumers regarding moving. Despite mortgage affordability remaining a significant barrier, there is growing acceptance of higher mortgage rates.
Rightmove, in particular, has reported a 6% increase in buyer demand. Some homebuyers had paused their plans, waiting for more stable conditions before making a move.
“Great conveyancing services, as a first time buyer i would highly recomend them and Kayleigh was helpful and easy going. Very happy with all the process.” – Michael, a satisfied AVRillo client.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, acknowledges that 2023 has been a challenging year for the housing market due to high inflation and interest rates. However, he expresses optimism for 2024, believing it will bring stability. Emerson emphasizes that confidence in the housing market is often indicative of broader economic trends.
As individuals and families consider their options in this evolving market, it’s essential to choose a conveyancer with a track record of excellence. AVRillo’s industry recognition, including awards from The Sunday Times and thousands of positive online reviews, make them a standout choice for those seeking a seamless and reliable conveyancing experience.
As we approach 2024, the UK’s mortgage lending landscape is expected to face continued challenges. Affordability, political uncertainty, and transaction volumes will remain critical factors to monitor. While experts anticipate a gradual improvement in affordability and some positive shifts in sentiment, the path to recovery may be accompanied by unexpected hurdles.
It’s crucial for prospective homebuyers and sellers to stay informed about these evolving trends and seek expert advice when navigating the real estate market in the coming year. For a smoother and more efficient conveyancing process, consider nationwide conveyancers like AVRillo, known for their transparent pricing, efficiency, and quality assurance.
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Mortgage lending is expected to decline further in 2024, with a potential 8% drop, returning to levels last seen in the mid-2010s.
Affordability challenges, political uncertainty, and transaction volumes are key factors influencing the decline.
Yes, recent sentiment suggests a small increase in positivity among consumers regarding moving, along with growing acceptance of higher mortgage rates.
Consider nationwide conveyancers like AVRillo for a smoother and more transparent conveyancing process, aligning with the changing landscape of the real estate market in 2024.